RESUMEN
Increasing temperatures and snow scarcity pose a serious threat to ski tourism. While the impacts of climate change on ski tourism have been elaborated extensively, little is known so far on the vulnerability of winter tourism towards both internal climate variability and climate change. We use a 50-member single model large ensemble from a regional climate model to drive the physically-based snowpack model SNOWPACK for eight stations across the Swiss Alps to model daily snow depth, incorporating both natural snow conditions and including technical snow production. We make a probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of ski tourism towards internal climate variability in a future climate by analyzing selected tourism-related snow indicators and find significant overall decrease in snow reliability in the future. Further, we show how the sensitivity towards internal climate variability differs among different tourism-related snow indicators and find that certain indicators are more vulnerable to internal climate variability than others. We show that technical snow production is an appropriate adaptation strategy to tackle risks from climate change and internal climate variability. While technical snow production can drastically reduce uncertainties related to internal climate variability, in low elevations, the technique reaches its limits to counteract global warming by the mid of the century.
RESUMEN
Weather station measurements were used to force the SNOWPACK snow model and combined with reindeer herders' experiences to study the local and regional variations in snow conditions in a Finnish reindeer herding area for the 1981-2010 period. Winter conditions varied significantly between the four selected herding districts and between open and forest environments within the districts. The highest snow depths and densities, the thicknesses of ground ice, and the lengths of snow cover period were generally found in the northernmost districts. The snow depths showed the strongest regional coherence, whereas the thicknesses of ground ice were weakly correlated among the districts. The local variation in snow depths was higher than the regional variation and limits for rare or exceptional events varied notably between different districts and environments. The results highlight that forests diversify snow and foraging conditions, e.g., ground ice rarely forms simultaneously in different environments. Sufficient and diverse forest pastures are important during the critical winter season if reindeer herding is pursued on natural grazing grounds also in the future.
